The following article appeared in India Today on 27 April 2017. The full text can be found here.
As Donald Trump completes 100 days as US President, what
has it meant for India? The short answer is, nobody knows, not even Trump. But
in an era of greater uncertainty, it is important for India to identify the key
variables triggered by Trump's election. They relate, essentially, to four
broad areas: bilateral relations, the Asian balance of power, terrorism and
global governance.
On bilateral relations, when market access, investment,
technology and the flow of people are taken together, the US stands out as
India's most important partner for progress. For America, India's rise presents
lucrative opportunities-in infrastructure, energy, financial services and
retail. The two countries enjoy an increasingly close private sector-led
relationship that encompasses IT, biological sciences, space, energy and
defence. This mutually beneficial and reinforcing partnership is premised on
two things. First, the factors that constitute American exceptionalism:
democracy, liberal internationalism and immigration. Trump has instead
projected America as a more 'normal' power, one unwilling to be a model for
others, focusing its defence structures on closer, more immediate challenges
and conceiving national identity in narrower terms. Additionally, the past
three US presidents were guided by the strategic logic, as Ashley Tellis put
it, that "a strong, democratic, (even if perpetually) independent India
[is] in American national interest". This logic informed Bill Clinton's
lifting of sanctions after the 1998 nuclear tests, George W. Bush's offer of a civil
nuclear agreement and Barack Obama's agreeing to a Joint Strategic Vision with
India. While trying to convince Trump of the merits of American openness and
the value of a strong India, New Delhi must work with other American actors
(including states, legislators and the private sector), while seeking
alternative partners whenever possible.
The US role as a security provider in the Indo-Pacific is
also crucial to preserving a regional balance of power. Trump has offered mixed
signals on China, but possible outcomes include a more militarised 'pivot to
Asia' or a policy of calculated unpredictability. Alternatively, Trump may try
to broker a power-sharing arrangement with Beijing, or not match his
belligerent rhetoric with the requisite sources, or engage in a ruinous trade
and currency war. Those outcomes would be much less welcome to New Delhi. While
evaluating the possibilities of each broad scenario and planning accordingly,
India must continue its policy of maintaining a favourable balance of power in
the Indo-Pacific. This means doubling down on an 'Act East' policy: arming the
north along the border, connecting east into Southeast Asia, securing the
Indian Ocean to the south, partnering farther afield with like-minded actors,
deepening institutional links to Asia and continuing to engage and cooperate
with Beijing, whenever possible, particularly economically.
Terrorism remains a third major concern. While talking
tough, Trump has focused on securing the homeland, defeating ISIS in Iraq and
Syria, and countering Iran. India has its own priorities, which place greater
stress on cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan and, relatedly, on
stabilising Afghanistan. However, the US appetite for counter-insurgency in
Afghanistan has declined, and several factors, including a nuclear weapons
programme, have prevented it from addressing Pakistan-based terrorism.
Therefore, while India and the US may find greater agreement at the level of
first principles when it comes to terrorism, practical cooperation might be
complicated.
Finally, Trump's election will have consequences for
global governance. Today, India seeks membership of the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation forum; desires a voice and a vote on nuclear, chemical, biological
and conventional weapons proliferation through membership to the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (which would cement its 2008 waiver that enables it to conduct
civil nuclear commerce); and seeks a permanent seat in an expanded UN Security
Council. While the US has supported India's membership of these forums in the
past, it appears a low priority for the Trump Administration. It will have to
be seen whether 'America First' can ever align with India's aspiration to be a
leading power.