The following article originally appeared in The Hindu on March 29, 2019.
There are many ways to assess a country’s role in the
world. Outcomes are one of them, including economic exchanges, political
decisions, and military cooperation. Resources – whether economic, military,
diplomatic, or cultural – are another. But public perceptions should not be
discounted. While the attention devoted by other countries’ leaderships and the
growth of the Indian economy since 1991 suggest that India’s standing in
international affairs has improved, what do the public think?
On March 25, the Pew Research Center released a study of
India, based on surveys conducted over the past year. Among the findings were
27 countries’ public views on India’s rise. The U.S. (40%), the U.K. (46%),
France (49%), Japan (48%) and Australia (40%) thought that India played a more
important role in the world compared to 10 years ago, and only a minority (4 to
17%) felt it was less important. Similar patterns were discernible in Canada,
Germany, South Korea, Sweden, and the Netherlands. The perception of India as a
rising power in North America, Europe, Northeast Asia, and Australia should be
little surprise, given that these are the places with the most active Indian
businesses, diasporas, and government-to-government relations.
On the flip side, very small numbers in Southern and
Eastern Europe and Latin America perceived India playing a more important role,
with respondents more likely to see India’s position declining. Only 17% in
Poland, 21% in Brazil, and 14% in Mexico saw India’s role as having enhanced
over the past decade. This too is not surprising. India’s presence is less
likely to be felt in Latin America. Southern and Central Europe is also a more
crowded space, with the U.S., the EU, Russia, and (increasingly) China jostling
for influence.
Somewhere in the middle of the pack are Russia (where 22%
saw India playing a more important role, and 21% less) and Africa, where the
numbers are mixed in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. This should be expected,
given their priorities and the vector of relations with India, particularly
relative to other powers.
From an Indian perspective, there are two points of
concern. One is Israel, where only 27% saw India playing a more important role
and 31% less. This is surprising only because that relationship has appeared to
be on a positive trajectory over the past decade. Defence ties, technological
relations, and political links have been consolidated. Recent years saw the
first presidential and among the first prime ministerial visits by Indian and
Israeli leaders to each other’s countries. India also remains a popular
destination for Israeli tourists.
The other, more minor, surprise concerns South-East Asia,
particularly Indonesia. That only 21% of Indonesians and 15% of Filipinos
perceived India as a rising power means that India’s Act East policy remains a
work in progress.