The following article, excerpted below, originally appeared on East Asia Forum on 24 July 2019. The full text can be accessed here.
India has denied US President Donald Trump’s suggestion
that he had been asked to be a ‘mediator or arbitrator’ in the Kashmir dispute
between India and Pakistan. India’s position has long been that the issue has
to be resolved bilaterally. So it is no surprise that the media reaction in
India has been critical, much as it was when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
visited New Delhi in June and Trump met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on
the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka.
But the state of commentary masks a number of important
realities in the India–US relationship. One is the generally positive views of
the United States in India. Only 9 per cent of Indians had an unfavourable view
of the United States in a 2017 survey, the lowest among the 37 countries
polled. A 2018 survey indicated that 75 per cent of India’s strategic community
believed the United States to be India’s most important partner on global
issues.
Although relations appear to be getting more
transactional in the ‘America First’ and ‘India First’ era, the primary
structural impediments to an India–US strategic partnership have eroded over
the past two decades. Most notable is the removal of US sanctions on India
after 2005 for its nuclear weapons program. The United States has become the
second largest defence equipment provider to India by value after Russia and
has supported India’s membership in major international organisations.
The trade relationship, which has grown from US$64
billion to US$88 billion over the past five years, underestimates the
interconnectedness of the two economies. Nearly 2000 US-based multinational
companies now operate in India, many conducting important research and
development. US-based multinationals are major job creators in India. Indian investment
in the United States has risen almost ten-fold over the past decade. For US
tech giants such as Facebook and Amazon, India often represents their largest
or fastest-growing user base.
Furthermore, in contrast to US relations with adversaries
such as China and Russia or allies and neighbours such as Germany and Mexico,
US ties with India have remained on an upward trajectory despite the transition
from the Obama to the Trump administration. Cooperation on counterterrorism,
maritime security in the Indian Ocean, infrastructure coordination, defence
technology and energy has deepened. There are also hints of some convergence on
future telecommunications technology.
Both countries have become more vocal in their support
for freedom of navigation, including in the South China Sea. They both have
concerns about China’s Belt and Road Initiative and share similar views about
the normative basis of a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific as an underpinning
for regional order. Given China’s continuing assertiveness and rising concerns
about the arc of instability stretching from Pakistan to Yemen, the strategic
logic of the relationship is being propelled forward.
However, the strategic elements of the relationship are
not always on the same plane as bilateral relations. There are four big
challenges that confront the relationship today. These topped the agenda during
both Pompeo’s and Trump’s meeting with Modi.