The following article originally appeared on November 12, 2022 in The Hindustan Times.
This should have been a United States (US) midterm election for the Republican Party to win handily. There is widespread public dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party’s handling of the economy, including high inflation and supply chain disruptions. And yet, as votes continue to be counted, control of the US Congress remains uncertain. The Republicans generally performed well in Florida, Ohio, and Texas, fared poorly in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and emerged with mixed results in Arizona and Georgia. It is likely that the Republicans will win a narrow majority in the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, while the Democrats may retain control in the Senate, especially were they to win a run-off election in Georgia next month.
Public opinion had pointed to a strong Republican showing. Seventy-five per cent of American voters believe the economy is doing poorly, 72% feel the country is going in the wrong direction, and 66% want to see substantial change in Washington. Voter turnout among younger voters was also low: Those aged under 45 comprised only about 30% of total midterm voters. Other factors proved mixed. Biden’s approval rating is only 44%, but almost half of the voters felt his presidency was not a factor influencing their vote. Although inflation topped the list of voter priorities (32%), it was followed closely by abortion (27%), and 60% of Americans favour legalising abortion in all or most cases. While Republicans performed well with White female voters (53%), they fared poorly among minorities.
The mixed results could have several, somewhat contradictory, political implications. Some of the blame among American conservatives has already focused on former President Donald Trump. Several candidates backed by Trump performed poorly or were perceived by unaffiliated voters as unsuitable.
At the same time, the result has strengthened the hand of some Republican governors and legislators who share Trump’s political positions on social issues, immigration, climate policy, trade, and foreign intervention. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who won re-election by a sizeable margin, cements his position to potentially run for president in two years. In the House of Representatives, the conservative factions — the Freedom Caucus and Republican Study Committee — will have greater sway over the legislative agenda, given the Republicans’ slim majority.
US foreign policy and national security remain the primary preserve of the presidency and the executive branch of government. Congress, however, plays several important roles. First, it controls the purse strings and can facilitate or block foreign military or economic assistance. Second, it can provide oversight, potentially embarrassing the Biden administration, such as through public hearings. Speculation before the election, for example, concerned potential hearings on the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Third, Congress needs to confirm senior officials. While much of the focus will be on federal judges — given the divisiveness of various social issues — this power has foreign implications as well, as indicated by the lack of Senate approval for a US ambassador to India.
While some foreign policy and national security issues — Ukraine, West Asia, trade, and treaties — might become more contentious, other areas enjoy greater bipartisan consensus. It is quite probable, for example, that a divided Congress will pass legislation to enable the US to better compete with China. Despite different priorities — industrial security, employment, human rights, military competition — both the Republicans and Democrats have their own reasons to adopt more competitive, even confrontational, policies towards Beijing.
India also remains an area of broadly bipartisan consensus, although again with different emphases. Both the Republicans and Democrats see the US partnership with India as integral to the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Both are conscious of appealing to Indian-American voters, and both want cooperative economic and trade relations with India, although naturally with a greater emphasis on Indian market access. While the Democrats recognised the need to partner with India on climate change and are often appreciative of steps being taken by New Delhi in that regard, the Republicans see growing Indian energy demand as a valuable opportunity for American oil and gas exports. Differences between the parties — as on social issues and on Russia — are unlikely to complicate relations with India significantly. However, the potential for immigration reform, which was already remote, may now be further set back by a legislative deadlock.
Overall, the midterm results will have two major implications for the US. For the next two years, Biden’s ability to pass legislation in support of his governance agenda will be compromised, although perhaps less than had been anticipated. Beyond the immediate economic relief associated with the coronavirus pandemic, Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress had managed to make some important legislative breakthroughs over the past two years, including on gun control, the climate crisis, semiconductor manufacturing, and infrastructure spending. In some cases, these laws received the backing of certain Republicans.
The other big implication will concern the 2024 US presidential election. Neither Biden, who will be almost 82 years old, nor Trump, who will be 78, have ruled out the possibility of running for president again. But should either or both choose not to contest, the field will be open. On the Republican side, DeSantis enjoys the biggest national profile, but others potentially in the mix include former vice president Mike Pence, ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and Texas senator Ted Cruz. The Democratic nomination would be even more uncertain, with vice president Kamala Harris hampered by low approval ratings, and several Democratic governors and cabinet members potentially waiting in the wings.
A divided Congress, a divided Republican Party, and a divided America may still be able to get some things done in the next two years. Although some trends do point to greater turmoil and gridlock, others suggest areas of potential compromise and change, with inevitable implications for the rest of the world.