India has long had vital interests in the region. The
first involves the safety and well-being of the almost nine million-strong
Indian diaspora in West Asia, who contribute remittances of around $40 billion
annually. Their security is also a politically sensitive issue for the Indian
government, and has necessitated evacuations of Indian nationals, whether from
Kuwait in 1990, Lebanon in 2006, Libya in 2011or Yemen in 2015.
The second interest concerns energy security, which is
vital for the health and well-being of the Indian economy. About 60% of all
Indian oil imports — and even more of its natural gas — come from West Asia,
making India one of the major economies that is most dependent on the region
for its energy needs.
A third consideration is security, including cooperation
on counterterrorism. This has required India to develop important, if sometime
tacit, security- and intelligence-sharing mechanisms, as well as broader
defence partnerships across the region. These critical Indian interests
concerning the diaspora, energy and security have required India to maintain a
delicate balancing act in the region between its major players, Saudi Arabia,
Iran, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and others.
But the situation in West Asia is fluid and ever-changing.
There are indications that the US might play a less active role as a security
guarantor in the region. This was implied previously in Barack Obama’s ‘pivot’
to Asia, and more recently by Donald Trump’s general wariness about the US’
international military involvement.
The Arab Spring, instead of resulting in mass
democratisation across the region, witnessed the breakdown of governance in
Egypt and triggered civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. The 2015 Iran
nuclear agreement may have dealt with the immediate challenges posed by that
country’s nuclear programme. But it has generated fears in other regional
capitals, who worry that the removal of international sanctions against Iran
may have emboldened Tehran and upset the balance of power.
Meanwhile, as oil prices remain low, several Gulf Arab
countries are beginning to plan for a post-oil future. The Saudi Vision 2030, a
signature project of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, marks an ambitious
plan to reorient and modernise the Saudi economy.
While preserving ties with Iran, a vital conduit into
Afghanistan and Central Asia, India has tried to seize the opportunities
presented by this changing landscape to strengthen ties with the likes of Saudi
Arabia and the UAE. Modi has reportedly noticeably increased the proportion of
the prime minister’s time spent abroad in West Asia relative to his
predecessor. It’s a reflection of the increased political importance India
accords to the region.
Even as India attempts to ‘Act East’, it is increasingly
‘Thinking West’. This is where Israel’s importance becomes apparent: looking
west from India, it is an island of stability amid a region beset by
considerable political, military, economic and social upheaval.